Moderate M2.0 solar flare erupts at 00:41 UTC on October 14, 2025

A moderate M2.0 solar flare erupted at 00:41 UTC on October 14, 2025. The event began at 00:35 UTC and ended at 00:44 UTC, originating from active region 4246.

Today’s flares include an M2.0 flare peaking at 00:41 UTC from region 4246, alongside several minor C-class flares: a C4.2 flare at 03:04 UTC from region 4246, a C2.5 flare at 03:36 UTC from region 4246, a C3.9 flare at 05:47 UTC from region 4248, a C6.0 flare at 08:46 UTC from region 4246, a C3.2 flare at 09:56 UTC from region 4246, and a C3.3 flare at 11:10 UTC from region 4246.

In 24 hours to 12:30 UTC on October 14, solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class flare activity, with region 4246 responsible for most significant events. Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with possible Earth-directed components were observed. Other notable activity included a prominence eruption off the east-northeast limb.

A high chance for a few R1 – Minor to R2 – Moderate radio blackouts, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 – Strong event, is forecast through October 16, primarily due to flare potential from region 4246.

Active sunspot regions presently observed on the Earth-facing solar disk include AR 4246 (N22W30 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), AR 4247 (S12W64 – Beta), AR 4248 (N07E01 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), AR 4250 (N07E06 – Beta), AR 4251 (N19E26 – Alpha), AR 4252 (S13E51 – Alpha), and AR 4253 (S17W24 – Alpha).

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 4 080 pfu observed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. The electron flux is expected to remain high on October 14 before returning to normal to moderate levels on October 15–16. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event above the S1 – Minor level through October 16.

Solar wind parameters reflected continued influence from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. The total interplanetary magnetic field decreased slightly, and solar wind speeds dipped below 600 km/s. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced but gradually wane through October 14, with additional increases likely by late October 15 as CME arrivals are anticipated.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active over the past 24 hours. The geomagnetic field will likely reach active levels, with a chance for an early G1 – Minor storm period on October 14. Conditions are expected to trend quiet to unsettled until late October 15, with G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming likely on October 16 in response to CME effects.