Minor C8.2 solar flare erupts at 13:23 UTC on October 14, 2025

A minor C8.2 solar flare erupted at 13:23 UTC on October 14, 2025.

Today’s flares include an M2.0 event from region 4246 peaking at 00:41 UTC, a C6.0 event from region 4246 peaking at 08:46 UTC, a C4.2 event from region 4246 peaking at 03:04 UTC, a C3.9 event from region 4248 peaking at 05:47 UTC, a C3.3 event from region 4246 peaking at 11:10 UTC, a C3.2 event from region 4246 peaking at 09:56 UTC, and a C2.5 event from region 4246 peaking at 03:36 UTC. No X-class flares have been observed.

In 24 hours to 12:30 UTC on October 14, solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class flare activity. The majority of activity originated from region 4246, with several CMEs observed, though modeling for their direction is ongoing. Additional prominence activity was noted off the east-northeast limb with no apparent Earth impact.

There is a high chance for a few R1 – Minor to R2 – Moderate radio blackouts, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 – Strong event, persisting through October 16, mainly due to the flare potential from region 4246.

Active sunspot regions presently observed on the Earth-facing solar disk include AR 4246 (N22W30 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), AR 4247 (S12W64 – Beta), AR 4248 (N07E01 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), AR 4250 (N07E06 – Beta), AR 4251 (N19E26 – Alpha), AR 4252 (S13E51 – Alpha), and AR 4253 (S17W24 – Alpha).

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, peaking at 4 080 pfu, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. Elevated electron flux is expected to continue on October 14 before returning to normal to moderate levels on October 15-16, with a slight chance of a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding S1 – Minor thresholds through October 16.

Solar wind parameters over the past 24 hours reflected continued influence from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), with total magnetic field decreasing from 6–7 nT to 4–5 nT, and solar wind speeds dropping below 600 km/s. These enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated to diminish gradually through October 14, with a renewed increase expected late on October 15 as coronal mass ejections from October 11–12 may arrive.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels over the last 24 hours. Active conditions, with a chance for an early G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm period, are likely on October 14. Activity should trend towards quiet to unsettled levels until late October 15, then increase again as CME effects arrive, making G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming likely on October 16.