Moderate M1.6 solar flare erupts at 09:03 UTC on October 19, 2026

A moderate M1.6 solar flare erupted at 09:03 UTC on October 19, 2026.

This M1.6 flare began at 08:54 UTC, peaked at 09:03 UTC, and ended at 09:16 UTC. The event originated from active region 4551. Today’s flares include C1.0 (01:36 UTC, 4551), C1.0 (02:11 UTC, 4559), C2.0 (07:18 UTC, 4551), and M1.6 (09:03 UTC, 4551).

In 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on October 19, solar activity was at low levels with only low-level C-class X-ray activity observed. A newly numbered sunspot region was noted and existing large regions continued developing.

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through October 21, with a 25% chance for M-class flares due to the flare potential of regions 4551 and 4557.

Active sunspot regions presently observed on the Earth-facing solar disk include AR 4551 (S16W46 – Beta-Gamma), AR 4555 (S07W99 – Alpha), AR 4557 (N06W13 – Beta), AR 4559 (S19W37 – Beta), and AR 4560 (N14E12 – Beta).

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. Electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through October 21, with no S1 – Minor solar radiation storms expected.

Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated during the period, with total field mostly at or below 5 nT and speeds declining from around 525 km/s to 410 km/s. Conditions are forecast to trend toward nominal levels until late on October 19, when influence from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream is expected.

The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. It is likely to reach G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm levels on October 19-20 due to expected effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream, with active conditions likely as these effects wane on October 21.