G2 – Moderate Geomagnetic Storm Watch issued for October 11

A G2 – Moderate Geomagnetic Storm Watch was issued for October 11, 2026. The Watch was initially released by NOAA SWPC at 17:02 UTC on October 11, but has since been cancelled as conditions no longer warrant a G2 Watch. The cancellation indicates that geomagnetic storm levels for this period are now expected to be below G1 – Minor, and no moderate geomagnetic storm activity is anticipated.

Potential impacts originally included effects primarily poleward of 55 degrees geomagnetic latitude. These impacts could have consisted of power grid fluctuations, possible voltage alarms in high-latitude power systems, orientation irregularities for satellites, increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites, and fading of high frequency (HF) radio propagation at higher latitudes. Aurora were also potentially visible as far south as New York, Wisconsin, and Washington state, had storm conditions materialized.

The Watch was issued in response to ongoing space weather activity, including the residual effects of CME(s) from October 7–8. Forecasts indicated possible G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storming early on October 11. However, as CME effects diminished more rapidly than anticipated, subsequent analyses showed a reduced risk, prompting the cancellation of the Watch. The primary solar trigger was an M6.4-class flare from Region 4549, peaking at 15:10 UTC on October 10, but modeling suggested the associated CME would largely miss Earth, resulting in lower impact than initially forecasted.