Moderate M2.5 solar flare erupts at 08:17 UTC on July 1, 2026

A moderate M2.5 solar flare erupted at 08:17 UTC on July 1, 2026.

Today’s flares include a flare that began at 03:59 UTC, peaked at 04:02 UTC, and ended at 04:14 UTC from region 4479 at location N17W21.

In 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on July 1, solar activity reached high levels due to an X1.1 flare at 20:50 UTC on June 30, accompanied by Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 410 sfu tenflare, and EUV dimming suggesting a coronal mass ejection. Additional activity included a strong M5.8 flare at 12:57 UTC from region 4475 and a C9.1 flare at 19:58 UTC from region 4478. Several regions showed growth, and small delta configurations were noted in regions 4478 and 4479.

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1 – Minor to R2 – Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 – Strong) due to the flare potential of regions 4475, 4478, and 4479.

Active sunspot regions presently observed on the Earth-facing solar disk include AR 4475 (S09W63 – Beta), AR 4477 (S14W31 – Beta), AR 4478 (S05W06 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), AR 4479 (N16W24 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), and AR 4480 (S18W30 – Beta).

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels, peaking at 5 687 pfu, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again reach high levels on July 1 and July 3, with moderate levels likely on July 2 due to the potential arrival of the June 27 CME. There remains a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1 – Minor).

Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels until 11:02 UTC on June 30, when an interplanetary shock was detected. Solar wind speed increased from about 330 km/s to 430 km/s, and the total magnetic field increased from 4 to 16 nT. The Bz component was mostly positive, with some southward values reaching -11 nT, and the phi angle was negative. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on July 1, with further enhancements possible late July 1 to early July 2 due to the predicted arrival of the June 27 CME. A return to nominal conditions is anticipated by July 3, pending renewed analysis of the CME associated with the X1.1 flare.

The geomagnetic field was quiet until the arrival of the CME that departed the Sun on June 26, after which unsettled to G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm conditions were observed during the latter half of the day. G1 – Minor storming is expected with a chance for periods reaching G2 – Moderate levels through early July 1 as CME activity continues. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on July 2 with the anticipated arrival of another CME from June 27, with lower confidence. Mostly quiet conditions are likely by July 3 based on further analysis of recent CME activity.