Moderate M3.1 solar flare erupts at 20:36 UTC on October 14, 2025

A moderate M3.1 solar flare erupted at 20:36 UTC on October 14, 2025.

Today’s flares include multiple events from AR 4246 and AR 4248. The strongest confirmed events are M2.0 at 00:41 UTC (AR 4246) and M2.0 at 12:47 UTC (AR 4248). Numerous C-class flares were also recorded, with peaks including C8.2 at 13:23 UTC (AR 4246) and C6.5 at 17:53 UTC (AR 4246).

In 24 hours to 12:30 UTC on October 14, solar activity reached moderate levels due to multiple M-class flares. The majority of activity originated from AR 4246, which underwent rapid development.

There is a high chance for several R1 – Minor to R2 – Moderate radio blackouts, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 – Strong event through October 16, primarily due to continued activity from AR 4246.

Active sunspot regions presently observed on the Earth-facing solar disk include AR 4246 (N22W30 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), AR 4247 (S12W64 – Beta), AR 4248 (N07E01 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), AR 4250 (N07E06 – Beta), AR 4251 (N19E26 – Alpha), AR 4252 (S13E51 – Alpha), and AR 4253 (S17W24 – Alpha).

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, peaking at 4 080 pfu at 14:25 UTC on October 13. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. High electron flux is expected on October 14, returning to moderate levels by October 15–16. There is a slight chance of a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding S1 – Minor levels through October 16.

Solar wind parameters over the last 24 hours reflected the ongoing influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream. The total magnetic field declined from 6–7 nT to 4–5 nT, with solar wind speeds dropping below 600 km/s. These conditions are expected to gradually wane during October 14. Additional solar wind enhancements are anticipated by late October 15 due to CME arrivals from October 11–12 activity.

Geomagnetic activity ranged from quiet to active throughout the past 24 hours. The geomagnetic field is expected to continue reaching active levels with a chance for an early G1 – Minor storm period on October 14, transitioning to mostly quiet to unsettled conditions until late October 15. By October 16, G1 – Minor storming is likely as CME impacts are forecasted.