Moderate M2.0 solar flare erupts at 00:41 UTC on October 14, 2025

A moderate M2.0 solar flare erupted at 00:41 UTC on October 14, 2025.

Today’s flares include only M-class events, namely an M1.9 flare at 05:26 UTC, an M2.7 flare at 09:19 UTC, and an M1.2 flare at 13:18 UTC on October 13, 2025, all attributed to active region 4246.

In 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on October 14, solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class flare activity. Region 4246 underwent significant development and produced multiple M-class flares, with associated coronal mass ejections. Other active regions displayed decay or minor growth.

There is a high chance for a few R1 – Minor to R2 – Moderate radio blackouts, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 – Strong event, expected to persist through October 16, 2025, primarily due to activity from AR4246.

Active sunspot regions presently observed on the Earth-facing solar disk include AR 4246 (N22W30 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), AR 4247 (S12W64 – Beta), AR 4248 (N07E01 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), AR 4250 (N07E06 – Beta), AR 4251 (N19E26 – Alpha), AR 4252 (S13E51 – Alpha), and AR 4253 (S17W24 – Alpha).

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 4 080 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is forecast to remain at high levels on October 14 before returning to normal to moderate levels on October 15–16. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event above the S1 – Minor threshold through October 16.

Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength ranged from 4–7 nT, with Bz mostly neutral or northward. Average solar wind speeds were just below 700 km/s. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to gradually wane through October 14, with additional increases anticipated late on October 15 due to CME arrivals from earlier activity in AR4246.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 – Minor storm levels early on October 13, but was primarily unsettled to active afterwards. The geomagnetic field is likely to continue reaching active levels, with a chance for an early G1 – Minor storm period on October 14. Activity is expected to trend toward quiet to unsettled until late on October 15, when further CME impacts may cause renewed activity. G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming is likely on October 16 in response to these effects.