Minor C7.8 solar flare erupts at 21:43 UTC on October 14, 2025

A minor C7.8 solar flare erupted at 21:43 UTC on October 14, 2025.

Today’s flares include an M2.0 event at 00:41 UTC from region 4246, a C4.2 flare at 03:04 UTC from region 4246, a C2.5 flare at 03:36 UTC from region 4246, a C3.9 flare at 05:47 UTC from region 4248, a C6.0 flare at 08:46 UTC from region 4246, a C3.2 flare at 09:56 UTC from region 4246, a C3.3 flare at 11:10 UTC from region 4246, a C2.7 flare at 12:22 UTC from region 4246, an M2.0 flare at 12:47 UTC from region 4248, a C8.2 flare at 13:23 UTC from region 4246, a C3.6 flare at 14:55 UTC from region 4247, a C5.0 flare at 15:40 UTC from region 4246, a C3.2 flare at 16:40 UTC from region 4246, a C3.7 flare at 17:11 UTC from region 4246, a C3.8 flare at 17:43 UTC from region 4246, a C6.5 flare at 17:53 UTC from region 4246, a C7.0 flare at 19:43 UTC from region 4246, and an M3.1 flare at 20:36 UTC from region 4246.

In 24 hours to 12:30 UTC on October 14, solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class flare activity. Region 4246 underwent significant evolution and produced most of the activity during this period.

There is a high chance for several R1 – Minor to R2 – Moderate radio blackouts, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 – Strong event, persisting through October 16 due to the flare potential from AR 4246.

Active sunspot regions presently observed on the Earth-facing solar disk include AR 4246 (N22W30 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), AR 4247 (S12W64 – Beta), AR 4248 (N07E01 – Beta-Gamma-Delta), AR 4250 (N07E06 – Beta).

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum of 4 080 pfu observed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels on October 14 before returning to normal to moderate levels on October 15–16. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event above S1 – Minor levels through October 16.

Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. The total interplanetary magnetic field decreased slightly from 6–7 nT to 4–5 nT. The Bz component was variable but mostly near neutral or northward, and solar wind speeds dipped below 600 km/s. The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced but gradually wane through October 14. Additional enhancements are anticipated late on October 15 due to CME arrivals from October 11–12 originating from AR 4246.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active over the last 24 hours. The geomagnetic field will likely continue to reach active levels on October 14, with a chance for an early G1 – Minor storm period. Activity is then expected to trend toward quiet to unsettled levels until late on October 15, when further active conditions are likely as CMEs impact the near-Earth environment. G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming is then likely on October 16 in response to CME effects.